Vice President Kamala Harris is favored to beat former President Donald Trump in five out of seven battleground states, according to a new model created using artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots.
The data was compiled by Aaru, a company co-founded earlier this year by two college dropouts and a 15-year-old boy, which created thousands of AI voter avatars using census and demographic data in a bid to make them representative of the wider population.
Aaru created models for the news website Semafor based on “a thousand or more” AI bots in each state. It concluded Harris is the favorite to win in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump has the advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. If all other states matched their 2020 election outcomes, this would see the vice president win the election.
The past few years have seen dramatic improvements in AI capabilities, leading to the launch of chatbots like ChatGPT and image generators such as DALL-E. Separate analysis conducted by Bonus Code Bets, using ChatGPT to study all 50 states, concluded Harris would win with 276 Electoral College votes (270 are needed to win) to Trump’s 262. Bonus Code Bets’ AI analysis also concluded that Republicans are on track to capture the Senate by flipping seats in West Virginia and Montana.
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The Aaru models predicted Harris would win Michigan with 50.71 percent of the vote against 49.29 percent for Trump. In Nevade, Harris led with 50.25 percent to 49.75 percent, while in Wisconsin she had 50.14 percent to Trump’s 49.86 percent. The model gave Harris a thin lead in Pennsylvania, which comes with 19 Electoral College votes, with 50.04 percent versus 49.86 percent for Trump.
In Arizona, the model put Trump ahead with 51.41 percent of the vote against 48.59 percent, while the Republican also led in Georgia with 50.67 percent against 49.33 percent. Trump also led in North Carolina, the only one of the seven battleground states he won in 2020, with 50.63 percent of the vote against 49.37 percent.
Overall, Aaru gave Harris odds to win of 63.3 percent in Michigan, 53.4 percent in Nevada, 52.4 percent in Pennsylvania and 50.9 percent in Wisconsin.
Trump’s odds of victory were 73.3 percent in Arizona, 62.1 percent in North Carolina and 61.8 percent in Georgia.
Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment on Tuesday by email.
British betting exchange Betfair had Trump as the favorite in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania on Tuesday, though Harris had the lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. The overall offered odds of a Trump victory were 4/6 (60 percent) against 6/4 (40 percent) for Harris.
With polls open across the United States, Harris and Trump have issued appeals to their supporters on social media.
In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Trump said: “It is now officially ELECTION DAY! This will be the most important day in American History. Voter enthusiasm is THROUGH THE ROOF because people want to Make America Great Again.”
Harris posted a 26-second video compilation of her campaign to X with the caption: “Today is Election Day. When we vote, we win.”
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